What we were thinking: The Enigma Stolen #5 of the Enigma Book Series-

Author Insight –

Stock market predictions, really?

We all know that predicting stock markets is not for the ‘faint of heart’ or likely when managing your own money.

We wanted to have a long time money handling expert like Wolfgang looking at why some unusual activity is occurring. He has spent decades looking at this type of information. If he questions the ability for a mere person to do this, then perhaps he has good reason.

Introducing Mauro as a wild card investor was done specifically to intrigue the reader. Investors can certainly guess or plan and succeed a few times, even in a row, but is it sustainable?

This is the foundation for how the future can be predicted with enough data and intelligent algorithm. However if you only think about how online shopping sites can track what you bought and predict your next desire opens us up to buying without thought. Do you do that? Let us know your thoughts after you read or listen to this story.

Excerpt-The Enigma Stolen

Otto blinked several times and then offered, “I would expect that they have competent regional commodity traders with a modest track record. But, I hear you saying that they are profiting from every futures trading such that they are now optimizing the market from Buenos Aires? Well, that’s certainly different.”

Wolfgang then explained, “There is a bright star named Mauro, who came from the small town of San Rafael Mendoza, and leads an oil futures trading desk. He has a small team of analysts in Buenos Aires, and one of them is his wife, Luisa. Together they have bet successfully on oil price movements for the last six months. Last month this team started doing the same thing with currency arbitrage bets, only the time horizons are greater than anything I’ve ever seen.

“The farther out you go on futures the less factual information you have, and either you have the world’s best Ouija board, or you have insider knowledge to place your bets. One doesn’t get insider currency and oil futures information for global market price manipulation in Buenos Aires.”

Otto sat looking thoughtful, then suggested, “Then they have the world’s best Ouija board and use it to predict how to bet on currency valuation movement and future oil prices.”

Wolfgang pondered the comment then replied, “I guess that is what I’m saying, Otto. I guess the disconcerting part is that this is a lot like the stock trader that was making a boatload of money in stock futures before he died mysteriously in the U.S. a while back.”

Otto nodded and agreed, “Yes, I remember the case. He was found shot in the back with a rifle. As I recall, the authorities ruled it suicide, though I never heard how that was justified with him shot in the back.

“I recommend that you continue hunting for these one-offs that don’t add up in the normal scheme of things. Hopefully, this Mauro person won’t have the bad luck that Clay Dough had with winning every bet. Good job finding these oddities in the financial network.”

Wolfgang added, “The other odd thing about the research on these financial transactions going on in Argentina is that I didn’t ask ICABOD to run it for me. I didn’t mention it before, but he also did the same thing on the Clay Dough case.”

Otto raised his eyebrows and said, “Extraordinary.”

Wolfgang turned and left rereading the report, stopped short of the door, then turned back, and mused, “Otto, predicting the future is always what human beings profess to want to be able to do. The curious thing about us is that while we can only live in the present, we spend an inordinate amount of time dreaming about the future. Future planning robs us of our present life. Then when the future doesn’t turn out the way we expected, we begin planning the future again. Our obsession with the future robs us of our present, but if you could read the future, then there is a chance that you could live comfortably in the present because you knew what was coming.”

Otto chuckled and asked, “Oh really? Well, I know that I’m going to grow older and then die, but that doesn’t make me happier! But if I could reliably bet on future commodity prices, currency valuations, or elections, then I can make my present much more comfortable because I can steal your future. My knowing the future, and you not, means you now work for me.”

Wolfgang mused, “You bring up an interesting point, Otto, but a flawed one. The time space continuum is not linear or two dimensional. It is multi-dimensional with multiple intersect possibilities. Not knowing the future means that actions drive unknown outcomes. If I know a future event that benefits me, I would not do anything different that might alter that outcome. But what if I don’t like the future outcome? Would I not be tempted to arrange events or alter activity flows so the future does benefit me? Now expand that to include other interested parties who can also see the future and are willing to alter the activity flow so they benefit. You and I now no longer have a future, but we potentially have no present life either.”

Otto stared at Wolfgang a few seconds and then said, “I don’t understand why Jacob plays chess with you. I sure won’t after this discussion.”

Wolfgang continued, “If these are one-off aberrations, then we take a closer look at the circumstances and try to neutralize their impact to the world economy. However, if this is a trend of specialized groups being able to reliably predict the future, then we need to closely monitor it and the specialized groups to see how to deal with the loss of our future.”

Otto nodded in agreement.